Global · Middle East · Yemen conflict

Houthis Seize Bab El-Mandeb, Saudi Pipeline Shut, Global Oil Supply at Risk

Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi movement has rapidly seized control of territory around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — the narrow chokepoint between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden through which roughly 10% of global seaborne trade passes. The offensive has prompted Saudi Arabia to shut down its major trans-peninsular oil pipeline, the main alternative export route while the Strait of Hormuz has been largely closed by the broader US-Israel-Iran conflict. Oil traders and buyers told Reuters that Saudi Arabia could exhaust its export stockpiles within days if the pipeline remains offline, potentially removing up to 4% of global oil supply from markets. Houthi forces have also launched ballistic missile and drone strikes on Saudi military bases, including the Sharurah base in southern Saudi Arabia, and claimed attacks on Iraqi oil infrastructure. More than 2,000 Yemenis have fled across the Red Sea to Djibouti as fighting spreads along Yemen's western coast, worsening an already dire humanitarian crisis.

The Houthis' control of Bab el-Mandeb compounds the disruption already caused by the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with tanker rental rates surging past $800,000 per day on the Gulf-to-China route and some voyages exceeding $29 million. Iran's foreign minister has simultaneously warned that a forthcoming agreement with Oman over Hormuz will not trigger a reopening of that waterway. A vessel was also struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, killing at least one crew member. The combined chokepoint crisis is driving fears of a sustained oil price spike and shipping cost surge that would ripple through global inflation and supply chains.

Saudi Arabia faces pressure from multiple fronts simultaneously, while Iran-aligned forces consolidate leverage over the world's two most critical maritime oil arteries. Pakistan's prime minister has already announced emergency fuel relief schemes for low-income vehicle users citing disrupted Middle East supply routes. Analysts at France 24 and Le Monde warn the Houthi escalation could represent a decisive shift in Yemen's war and a new phase of Iranian regional strategy. International attention at the BRICS summit in New Delhi has also touched on the conflict's implications for Global South energy security. The immediate stakes are whether Saudi Arabia can restore pipeline flow before export stocks run out, and whether any coalition moves to reopen the strait by force.

Middle East · Iran politics

Iran-GCC Summit in Oman: Regional Security Talks amid Hormuz Tensions

Iran is preparing to hold a multilateral summit with Iraq and Gulf Cooperation Council nations in Oman, framed as an effort to strengthen shared regional security. The meeting represents a rare diplomatic opening between Tehran and its Gulf neighbors at a moment of acute tension, following a war with Israel and ongoing crises in the Strait of Hormuz. Bahrain has declined to attend, signaling that the rapprochement has clear limits among GCC members.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi tempered expectations ahead of any anticipated agreement with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz, stating explicitly that even a formal accord governing the waterway would not lead to its reopening. That position is significant: tanker charter rates through the Hormuz corridor have surged past $800,000 per day, with some voyages costing over $29 million, as the strait's closure continues to choke oil flows from the Gulf to global markets. A ship was also reported on fire in the strait after being struck by an unknown projectile on Sunday, underlining the ongoing danger to commercial navigation.

The Oman summit is nonetheless being watched closely across the region as a potential first step toward de-escalation. For Gulf states, the meeting offers a channel to discuss security guarantees and reduce the risk of further economic disruption. For Iran, it is an opportunity to break diplomatic isolation and signal a willingness to engage neighbors on terms short of full normalization. Whether the talks produce any binding commitments — or founder on the Bahrain snub and the Hormuz impasse — will shape the region's security and economic landscape in the months ahead.

Latin America · Brazil politics

Brazil's General Elections Three Weeks Out as Bolsonaro Era Fades

Brazil is entering the final stretch of its 2026 general election cycle, with voters set to choose a president, governors, senators, and federal and state deputies. The campaign is taking shape without former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is both imprisoned and legally barred from running — yet still registers a residual 2% voter intention in the latest Datafolha poll released on September 11, underscoring how fragmented the political right remains without its dominant figure.

The election is being watched for whether anti-racist mobilisation can serve as a decisive force at the ballot box, with analysts debating whether a specifically anti-racist vote could reshape the outcome and influence longer-term legislative composition. The race takes place against a backdrop of deep socioeconomic divisions visible even in everyday life — São Paulo's housing patterns, for instance, show renters concentrated in the city centre and homeowners predominating on the periphery — a geography that maps closely onto voting behaviour.

With three weeks to go, the contest will determine the direction of Latin America's largest democracy and economy for the next four years. The outcome of the presidential race in particular carries consequences not just for Brazil's domestic policy — on fiscal management, social programmes, and environmental regulation — but for the region's broader political balance.

Europe · Serbia politics

Student-led Movement Launches Election Challenge to Serbian Government

The student-led opposition movement that emerged from the November 2024 Novi Sad train station canopy collapse — which killed 15 people and sparked months of mass protests — has formally launched its campaign to oust President Aleksandar Vučić's ruling party in the upcoming October parliamentary elections. The movement held its opening rally in Novi Sad, the city where the disaster that catalysed the protests took place, signalling a deliberate political and symbolic choice of venue.

The movement represents an unprecedented attempt by a civic protest coalition, rather than a traditional opposition party, to translate street energy into electoral power. Demonstrators have accused the government of corruption, negligence, and the erosion of rule of law — charges the government denies. Serbia's political landscape has long been dominated by Vučić's Serbian Progressive Party, and the student-led campaign faces significant structural challenges including media access, financing, and organising a nationwide voter-mobilisation effort in a short timeframe.

The October vote will be a critical test of whether protest movements in the Balkans can convert popular anger into ballot-box results. If the movement performs strongly, it could fundamentally reshape Serbian politics; if it falls short, it may embolden the government and dampen civic activism in the country. All eyes in the region will be on whether this model — citizens turning a tragedy into a political reckoning — can succeed.

Sub-Saharan Africa · Nigeria business

Nigeria's Manufacturing Sector in Steep Decline, NESG Warns

The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), one of the country's most respected private-sector policy bodies, has raised urgent concerns about the deteriorating state of Nigeria's manufacturing sector. The group points to soaring energy costs and a persistent lack of affordable financing as the primary forces hollowing out industrial production, threatening jobs and domestic supply chains across the country.

The warning comes at a particularly sensitive moment for Nigeria's economy. Since the removal of the fuel subsidy under President Bola Tinubu and the liberalisation of the naira, energy and input costs have surged sharply, squeezing manufacturers who were already operating on thin margins. Many factories have scaled back production or shut down entirely, pushing more Nigerians into unemployment and increasing dependence on imports for goods that could be made locally.

The NESG's alarm adds to a growing chorus of concern from business groups and economists who argue that without urgent intervention — including reliable and affordable electricity, targeted credit facilities for manufacturers, and a stable macroeconomic environment — Nigeria risks a deeper deindustrialisation that will set back economic development for years. The stakes are high for a country of over 220 million people that badly needs its productive sector to generate employment and reduce poverty.